Latest news with #Sheng Laiyun
France 24
15-07-2025
- Business
- France 24
China's economy grows 5.2% on trade war truce
The figures offer a rare bit of good news for the country's leadership as it fights a multi-front battle to kickstart growth -- a challenge made all the more difficult by Donald Trump's tariff war. But the knock-on effects of the trade turmoil abroad and persistent sluggish consumption mean the economy could slump in the second half of year, analysts warned. The US president has imposed tolls on China and most other major trading partners since returning to office in January, threatening Beijing's exports just as it becomes more reliant on them to stimulate economic activity. The two superpowers have sought to de-escalate their row after reaching a framework for a deal at talks in London last month, but observers warn of lingering uncertainty. On Tuesday, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent in April-June, matching a prediction by an AFP survey of analysts and topping an official growth goal for the year set by the government. But it marked a slowdown from the 5.4 percent seen in the first quarter, which was boosted by exporters rushing to shift goods ahead of swingeing US tariffs kicking in. "The national economy withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges," NBS deputy director Sheng Laiyun told a news conference. "Production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers witnessed robust development, and high-quality development made new strides," he said. Markets were mixed in response -- after a strong start to the day, Hong Kong pared an early rally while Shanghai dipped into negative territory. Elsewhere, Tokyo, Sydney, Singapore and Taipei, but Seoul, Wellington and Manila retreated. "The figures probably still overstate the strength of growth," Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year," Huang added. Retail sales rose 4.8 percent on-year, below a forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, suggesting efforts to kickstart consumption have fallen flat. The weak readings come even as Beijing tries to shift towards a growth model propelled more by domestic demand than the traditional key drivers of infrastructure investment, manufacturing and exports. Factory output meanwhile gained 6.8 percent, higher than the estimate -- reflecting continued high demand for Chinese exports that has boosted growth. 'More deflation' But analysts warn that strong exports could be driving deflationary pressures and further dampening already sluggish consumer demand. "Recent efforts to boost spending, such as the broadening of the consumer goods trade-in scheme earlier this year, did temporarily lift retail sales," said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody's Analytics. "However, this support proved unsustainable, with funding reportedly drying up in several provinces. The scheme's limitations highlight the need for policymakers to address the deeper structural challenges behind consumer caution." Data last week showed consumer prices edged up in June, barely snapping a four-month deflationary dip, but factory gate prices dropped at their fastest clip in nearly two years. "The economy posted a solid first half, supported by resilient exports, though this momentum is contributing to deepening deflationary trends," Louise Loo, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, said in a note. "The cost of strong exports is more deflation," she said. Disagreements also persist between Beijing and Washington, despite the framework agreement reached last month. Trump upped the ante on Monday, warning Russia's trading partners that he will impose "very severe" tariffs reaching 100 percent if Moscow fails to end its war on Ukraine within 50 days. Western nations have repeatedly urged China -- a key commercial ally of Russia -- to wield its influence and get President Vladimir Putin to stop his three-year-old war with Ukraine. "The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging," Capital Economics' Huang said. "With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal ammunition being depleted and structural headwinds persisting, growth is likely to slow further over the second half," she said.
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Asian markets mixed as China's economy meets forecasts
Markets were mixed Tuesday as positive Chinese economic data was offset by weak consumer spending, while optimism that governments will hammer out deals to avoid the worst of Donald Trump's tariff threats provided support. Beijing said gross domestic product expanded 5.2 percent in April-June thanks to a surge in exports as businesses front-loaded shipments ahead of the US president's stiff levies, and after the superpowers agreed to work on a long-term pact. While the reading was slightly slower than the first quarter, it was in line with forecasts in an AFP survey and comes after figures on Monday showed exports soared more than expected in June, including a strong recovery in goods sent to the United States. Meanwhile, industrial output came in above expectations. However, Tuesday's reports showed efforts to boost consumer activity continue to fall flat, with retail sales expanding 4.8 percent last month, well below estimates in a Bloomberg study and highlighting the work leaders face in kickstarting the economy. China's recovery has been hamstrung by a bruising trade war with the United States, driven by Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the two de-escalated their spat with a framework for a deal at talks in London last month. But observers warn of lingering uncertainty. "The national economy withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges," National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) deputy director Sheng Laiyun told a news conference. "Production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers witnessed robust development, and high-quality development made new strides," he said. And the US president upped the ante Monday, warning Russia's trading partners -- which include China -- that he will impose tariffs reaching 100 percent if Moscow fails to end its war on Ukraine within 50 days. After a strong start to the day, Hong Kong pared an early rally while Shanghai dipped into negative territory. Elsewhere, Tokyo, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei and Jakarta rose, with Seoul and Manila in the red. Trump also Monday said he will impose antidumping duties on most imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico, with the US Commerce Department accusing its neighbour of engaging in unfair trade. That came after he said he would hit the country and the European Union with 30 percent levies, having announced a slew of measures against key partners last week if deals are not struck by August 1. However, analysts said investors viewed the warnings as negotiating ploys rather than a genuine move, citing previous threats that were later rowed back. The mixed performance in Asian markets followed a healthy day on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq hit another record high. Bitcoin edged down after hitting a record high above $123,200 on Monday thanks to optimism over possible regulatory changes for crypto assets in the United States. - Key figures at around 0230 GMT - Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 39,507.28 (break) Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 24,315.92 Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,503.99 Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1674 from $1.1670 Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3434 from $1.3428 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 147.63 yen from 147.77 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.90 pence from 86.88 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.4 percent at $66.70 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $68.98 per barrel New York - Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 44,459.65 (close) London - FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 8,998.06 (close) dan/mtp Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
